(1) Great Transition Period
-the 21st Century in Human History

As the December issue (No. 7) already mentioned, Kenneth E. Boulding, Nobel Prize laureate economist, characterized the period from the end of the 20th toward the beginning of the 21st century as the intermediate period of a great transition period from the pre-civilized period that began 5,000 years ago to a new stage that can be called a post-civilized society.

From a demographic point of view, this great transition period is characterized by an extraordinary population increase called population explosion. The world population that amounted to 2.5 billion after World War II in 1950 was multiplied by 2.4 times in half a century, and reached 6.1 billion in 2000. In comparison, the increase in the earlier half of the 20th century was 900 million from 1.6 billion to 2.5 billion, or only 56 percent.

The following four excellent studies suggested an urgent threat to human survival caused by population increase, and urged the international community to take immediate action.

The first one is the study report titled "The Limits to Growth" published by the Club of Rome in 1972. The study team statistically analyzed that the ongoing population growth was approaching the limit of the capability of the earth to support humans. It drew world attention.

The second one is "Beyond the Limits" published 30 years later in 2002, also by the Club of Rome. It points out that humans are finally crossing the limit of survival on the earth, emphasizing the need for a thorough understanding of the reality and immediate measures to control population growth.

The third one is the proposal by Lester Brown to formulate a strategy to stabilize world population. His article was published in 1974, in the same year as the 1st UN World Population Conference was held in Bucharest.

The last one is the latest study by Lester Brown, which is currently published in series in a review ("The Liberty" No. 131, March 2006) under the title of "Can the stomach of human beings be filled? In this article, he presents the latest data on interrelations between population and food production centering on the data of China.

(2) Characteristics of Japan's Demographic Transition

Being in Asia, Japan experienced a unique demographic transition process different from that occurred in the western cultural sphere. First, fertility decline in modern Japan began earlier than Britain, which had followed a typical demographic transition in the west. The intermediate report of the Population Problems Council, "An Opinion of the Reproductive Trends in Japan" (Trends in Family Planning, vol. 1 No. 56; Aug. 1970), indicated that the fertility rate in Japan had already reached the under-replacement level that no western country had experienced for more than a decade at that time. Fertility has continued to decline and Japan is a member of the group with the lowest fertility in the world.

Figure 1(Click this image↑)

The second characteristic is that Japan's fertility decline presents a strong motivational factor for developing countries outside the western cultural sphere. Hence, Japan's experience established the fact that demographic transition can occur across cultural borders. Based on this fact, it may be possible for a new dimension in demographic transition theory to be evolved.

(3) Japan's Contribution to Measures
to Cope with Aging Population

Changes occurring in the age structure as a result of population aging in many countries are causing serious problems. Among these countries, the level of population aging in Japan stands out. It is expected that Japan can show policy models for the aged population to be used for policy formulation in other countries.

Particularly, the current age divisions for the dependent segments of the population (children and elderly people aged 64 and below) can be changed to include people aged 65 and over into the productive age group. In this way, the burden coefficient of dependency in the 21st century may be greatly lightened.

Figure 2(Click this image↑)

A wider range of measures for the elderly may hopefully be devised taking advantage of the reduced demographic burden coefficient. Furthermore, radical measures should be taken, including the abolition of retirement age, the reduction of working hours, a better work-personal life balance, and effective utilization of a greatly extended life expectancy.