A report released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, in December 2006, stated that the total fertility rate (TFR) of Japan will stabilize as low as 1.26 by 2055, leading to a population of 89.93 million. This represents a drop of 30% from current levels.

The main reason cited is that more women will stay single, estimating that 23.5% of women born in 1990 will never get married, up from the calculation of 16.8% in 1985.

The working age population, those aged 15 to 64, will fall to 58.5% in 2030, and 51.1% in 2055. In 2005, it was 66.1%.

These figures mean the government will have to review its public pension system as this is based on a TFR of 1.39.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has stated that even if the TFR is as low as 1.26, it will not lead to a collapse of the public pension system.